The South Carolina Gamecocks (14-15, 5-11) will kick off the 2011 SEC Basketball Tournament against the Ole Miss Rebels (19-12, 7-9) Thursday afternoon at 3:30 pm at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA.
South Carolina ended the season on a bitter note, losing at home on senior night 73-69 to Tennessee, after a late rally fell short. They also lost their last regular season game against Mississippi State 60-58 on a questionable decision by Ramon Galloway to kick out a pass to Bruce Ellington instead of driving to the basket to cap a late rally that ultimately fell short.
The good news for Carolina is that they have the confidence they need to beat Ole Miss, having accomplished the feat earlier in the year in a 79-73 home win, which turned out to be their last win of the regular season. The bad news for the Gamecocks is that it is very difficult to beat a team twice in the same year, especially in the SEC, where the Eastern and Western divisions, for the most part, are very deep and competitive.
Ole Miss is entering the contest winning two of their last three regular season games, including big wins against a very strong Alabama team, who is the regular season champion in the SEC Western division, and Arkansas. The Rebels could have been entering this first round game on a three game winning streak if it wasn't for a difficult loss at Auburn 76-73 in a game which the Rebels led by as much as 20 points.
Carolina will need to continue the trend of their last few regular season contests of getting the ball into the paint. The Gamecocks were very successful in the second half against Tennessee in getting looks from inside instead of settling for jump shots, where they have struggled mightily for most of the year. If Carolina can get their bigs involved early and often, especially Senior PF Sam Muldrow, then I do not see a reason why South Carolina cannot win this game. If they are timid in driving to the basket to get some layups and try to draw a few fouls, then Ole Miss could make this game ugly.
Ole Miss needs to focus on getting some help for G Chris Warren. He had a career-high 33 points in the Rebels' loss at South Carolina earlier in the year, but despite his efforts, the rest of the team only combined for 40 points. If Warren is forced to do it all as he did last time, then the Rebels may find it difficult to find opportunities for Warren as Carolina can focus on double teaming and trapping Warren all day. If he is able to spread the wealth, the Ole Miss should have a good chance to create opportunities down low, which will open up the outside shot for Warren later in the game.
Given the Gamecocks' struggles throughout the season, especially in the second half, I would normally give the edge to Ole Miss in this game, but the Rebels have many issues defensively, which is something that can hurt you, especially late in games. Carolina has a good chance to win this game, in my opinion, and I believe that after blowing an 18 point second half lead in last year's first round game against Alabama, Head Coach Darrin Horn won't want a repeat performance this year.
Prediction:
South Carolina 71 Ole Miss 68
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